Picks against spread for every game

Publish date: 2024-08-29

There would normally be a lot to unpack from last weekend in the NFL.

There was the conspiracy theory connecting the Sauce Gardner holding penalty to the sudden arrival of millions of Swifties, who are now watching Chiefs games and buying their jerseys in droves and could be turned off by — horrors! — a loss by their new favorite team.

There was the Patrick Mahomes’ slide near the goal line to end Sunday night’s game at 23-20 Chiefs, allowing sportsbooks to keep many million of dollars bet by people who backed Kansas City as 7.5- to 9.5-point favorites.

There was Rodney Harrison’s despicable attempt to convince K.C.’s Chris Jones on Sunday night’s postgame show that Zach Wilson is “garbage.” Props to the classy Jones — and later Micah Parsons — for hitting back at that notion.

And I don’t know where to begin about Evan Neal’s characterization of booing Giants fans as ignorant hotdog and hamburger flippers. At least he apologized, and not the “if I offended anybody” kind. But it was a bad look for Neal and the 1-3 Giants after a desultory 24-3 home loss.

No, I don’t have time for any of this. I need wins, and I need them now.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-11.5) over New York Giants

So now the Giants head down to Miami on a short week with a broken offensive line that allowed 11 sacks and a shell-shocked quarterback who committed three turnovers vs. Seattle. All they have to do is face a Dolphins team that is coming off a four-touchdown loss at Buffalo following a 70-20 annihilation of Denver.

Though those two Dolphins results highlights the week-to-week variance of the NFL, it’s hard for me to come up with a game script that ends up with the Giants hanging remotely close to Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill.

New York Jets (+2.5) over DENVER BRONCOS

Did Zach Wilson have his career turning point in the second quarter vs. K.C.? We’ll begin to find out Sunday in Denver, where he faces a team that is two weeks removed from giving up 70 points. This is also a grudge match for offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who was trolled by Broncos coach Sean Payton during training camp.

The offensive line was solid against the Chiefs, giving Wilson clean pockets, time to make reads and room to step into his throws. This led to some nice pitches and catches to Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard, the discovery of the tight ends in the passing game and eventually some running lanes for Breece Hall.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) over Buffalo Bills (in London)

There are a couple of situational factors behind this selection. We saw with the Dolphins how a team can go from a 50-point win to a 28-point loss the next week just with a change of venue and opponent. The Bills, off a 48-20 victory over the Dolphins, now have to go to England for a 9:30 a.m. body-clock game against a Jaguars team that played there last week (and won) and has had time to get acclimated to the country and conditions.

The Bills are a great team, but they are now without Tra’Davious White in the secondary. A few weeks ago, the Jaguars limited the Chiefs to 17 points. Buffalo probably pulls this one out, but the spread looms large.

STEELERS (+4) over Ravens

Possibly the toughest game of the week to predict. The Ravens have two blowout wins and Steelers have two sizable losses, so the possibility of a Ravens win by margin is certainly present, particularly with Kenny Pickett on the injury report with a bone bruise in his knee. Really, all I can offer is that I like the spread north of a field goal and am counting on that NFL phenomenon of a stark reversal of last week’s results.

Carolina Panthers (+10) over DETROIT LIONS

I realize the Panthers’ one good offensive output (a 37-27 loss at Seattle) came with Andy Dalton at quarterback, and their offense has been grim with Bryce Young so far. Just not ready to embrace the Lions as double-digit favorites, a rare role for them, particularly with the likes of Brian Branch and Amon-Ra St. Brown on their injury report.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+1) over New Orleans Saints

These teams lost by a combined 52 points last week. The Saints come in with injury concerns for QB Derek Carr (AC joint). The Patriots will be missing their two best defensive players, Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez, and confidence in Mac Jones may be at an all-time low. Figure I can count on Bill Belichick to clean up his mess a little better than Dennis Allen can.

Houston Texans (+1.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

Atlanta probably has the better overall team in this matchup, but there are two things I like about the Texans here: 1. CJ Stroud over Desmond Ridder at quarterback and, 2. The Falcons are playing the week after their trip to London, and that could be a factor.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+2.5) over Tennessee Titans

Tennessee is coming off back-to-back 27-3 scores, one loss and one win. The Colts have lost both of their home games, but the two road wins (at Houston and Baltimore) were impressive. Another tough call, but I think Anthony Richardson is a little more dynamic than Ryan Tannehill, and the Colts are due for a home victory.

LOS ANGELES RAMS (+4.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

Matthew Stafford has done a great job finding the likes of Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell in Cooper Kupp’s absence. Kupp began practicing this week, and that’s sure to lift the Rams’ spirits, even if he’s not ready to suit up on Sunday. Three of the Eagles’ wins have been by five, six and three points so there’s some room here for the spread to come into play.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (+3) over Cincinnati Bengals

An early crisis moment for the 1-3 Bengals, who have been held to three points in two of the losses due to Joe Burrow’s immobility with a calf injury. Two weeks ago, the Cardinals took down the Cowboys at home, and there’s a lot of life with this team that was incorrectly perceived to be tanking for Caleb Williams before the season even began.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

It was odd to see the Chiefs let a 17-0 lead turn into a 20-20 tie against the Jets. Maybe they’re a little too immersed in the Taylor Swift storyline. I believe Andy Reid will refocus his team before this one, and Patrick Mahomes will be at his best after his rare clunker.

Betting on the NFL?

Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The Cowboys’ three wins this season have been by 40, 20 and 35 points, with one bad loss at Arizona in the middle. Niners have won 14 regular-season games in a row, but I’m expecting this to be a high-level, prime-time showdown where the “.5” hook could be very valuable.

Monday

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (+1) over Green Bay Packers

Raiders would be favored if not for the uncertainty of Jimmy Garoppolo’s return at quarterback. I wouldn’t be thrilled to be backing Aidan O’Connell, but at least he’ll have had a game under his belt. Packers haven’t done much yet to draw me to their side.

Best bets: Dolphins, Jets, Chiefs
Lock of the week: Dolphins (Locks 0-4 in 2023)
Last week: 5-11 overall, 0-3 Best Bets
Thursday: Commanders (L).

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