Burned by a bad snow forecast? Here are 5 tips from a meteorologist.

Publish date: 2024-07-23

Last week was a tough one for meteorologists in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and for many people who made plans and decisions based on their forecasts.

On Monday morning, Boston forecasters were calling for as much as a foot of snow the next day. But the storm shifted south leaving the city with only 0.1 inches. Albany, N.Y., was also expecting a foot, but got nothing. A Friday night storm in the Washington area wasn’t nearly as big of a bust. Still, forecasts that were mostly in the range of 1 to 5 inches overshot the dusting to few inches that fell and melted off roads by sunrise.

The data is clear: Weather forecasts are more accurate than they used to be and are correct much more often than they are wrong. Yet when it comes to snow, the amount and impact of which can vary greatly over relatively short distances, forecasts are often less certain and occasionally way off the mark.

Missed forecasts are understandably frustrating for those who make plans and decisions based on them. In Boston, the mayor announced Monday morning that the city’s public schools would be closed Tuesday. Around D.C., many Saturday activities were canceled the day before. In both cases, the weather turned out to be just fine.

When forecasts go wrong, meteorologists are often accused of relying too much on weather models. That’s like saying doctors rely too much on X-rays and MRIs when diagnosing a fractured bone. Models are by far the best tool we have to predict the weather, especially when their forecasts are adjusted based on the meteorologist’s experience and local knowledge.

Snow forecasts should become more consistently reliable in the future as models are improved, there’s more observational data fed into them and AI weather forecasting matures. Until then, when used the right way from the right sources, snow forecasts can still help people and organizations make informed decisions.

The next time snow is in the forecast, consider the following advice when making plans around the weather:

Expect the forecast to change

Snow forecasting is hard, especially in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where the rain-snow line is often nearby.

Forecasts will almost always change in the day before a storm’s arrival. Such shifts usually aren’t as dramatic as seen in the Northeast early last week, when forecasts swung up or down by as much as 6 to 10 inches in 24 hours. But even small changes in a storm’s track or intensity can be the difference between no snow and several inches.

Usually the longer you can wait to make a decision, the better. Unless forecasters declare high confidence in at least several inches of snow and temperatures below freezing, schools and local governments would be wise to maintain as much flexibility as possible. For example, if snow is due to arrive overnight or in the early morning, better to announce a delay the evening before and reassess in the morning than to cancel outright.

Pay attention to the impacts

Focus on the impacts instead of exact snow amounts. Of course, sometimes the two are closely linked. For instance, the foot of snow Boston was expecting last Tuesday clearly would’ve had a much different impact than the 10th of an inch that actually fell.

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In some cases, however, a changing or inaccurate forecast may not significantly change the impact. Around D.C., for example, most forecasts issued during the day Friday said that it would only snow heavily for a few hours Friday night and that roads would be fine by late Saturday morning due to temperatures rising well into the 30s.

In the end, the low impact of the storm was properly predicted even though the accumulation forecast was too high. Yet many activities were needlessly canceled for the entire day.

Consult a meteorologist

Broadcast and digital meteorologists, as well as those at the National Weather Service, forecast for diverse audiences across broad areas. They try to provide the best, most useful information they can. But they can’t cater to the unique circumstances of any one school or school system, local government, business or other organization.

Some larger school systems and local governments contract with private weather forecasting companies for direct access to a meteorologist. However, many smaller school systems, private schools and community organizations do not. For these entities, publicly available forecasts are a helpful tool, but they aren’t a substitute for engaging directly with a skilled meteorologist.

There are plenty of meteorologists who are happy to provide such tailored support. The American Meteorological Society maintains a directory of weather and climate service providers, including companies and individuals.

Follow trusted sources

Weather forecasts are everywhere these days — on TV, radio, apps, websites and social media.

There are many credible sources that offer forecasts from experienced meteorologists. But not all provide information such as level of confidence, the range of possible outcomes and expected impacts that are particularly important for snow forecasts. This is especially true of many weather apps, which often lack the human forecaster input necessary to provide this context.

In addition to seeking out contextual information, beware of the increasing number of amateur forecasters on social media. Some know their stuff, while others are just out for clicks. Be skeptical of accounts that constantly post model snow maps for storms several days to more than a week away. It’s nearly impossible to definitively say it will snow, let alone how much, more than a few days before a storm’s arrival.

The Certified Digital Meteorologist program recently established by the American Meteorological Society should help identify trusted meteorologists online, just as the Certified Broadcast Meteorologist program has long done for TV and radio.

Trust that forecasters like being right more than snow

When snowfall comes up short of forecasts, some people accuse meteorologists of “wishcasting” higher amounts because they love snow. It’s true that snow is what first got some meteorologists in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic interested in the weather. I know because I’m one of them. It’s also true there’s one thing most of us like more than snow — being right.

Another common complaint is that the media hypes snow forecasts. Two things can be true at the same time, though: TV and radio stations, websites and apps can be vying for your eyes and ears (of course they are, it’s a business), AND their meteorologists can be trying their hardest to give you the most accurate forecast possible.

So the next time you sense your favorite forecaster is excited by the prospect of snow, you’re probably right. Just know there’s one thing they probably care more about than getting the weather they wish for — predicting it accurately so people can properly plan for its impact.