Almanac | COVID Update | Jan 2024 | Season 2024 | Episode 17

>> Cathy: WE'VE A GOT A FULL SHOW FOR YOU TO START OUT THE NEW YEAR.

IN THE NEXT HOUR, WE'LL VISIT WITH THE NEW MINNESOTA SUPREME COURT JUSTICE, KEVIN KLING HAS AN ESSAY FOR US, MARY LAHAMMER LOOKS BACK AT SOME OF 2023'S BIGGEST OLITICAL STORIES.

>> Eric: BUT WE START TONIGHT WITH THE BIG STORY THAT NEVER QUITE SEEMS TO GO AWAY.

COVID-19, CASE NUMBERS AND HOSPITALIZATIONS ARE ON THE RISE AGAIN.

THERE ARE NEW VARIANTS TO CONTEND WITH, ADD IN FLU AND RSV SEASON, AND A CDC REPORT EARLIER TODAY THAT 38 STATES HAD HIGH OR VERY HIGH LEVELS OF RESPIRATORY DISEASE LAST WEEK, THAT'S UP FROM 31 THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

NEARLY FOUR YEARS NOW, MIKE OSTERHOLM HAS JOINED US WITH REGULAR COVID UPDATES.

OSTERHOLM, WORLD RENOWNED EPIDEMIOLOGIST, HE HEADS THE U OF M CENTER FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASE, RESEARCH AND POLICY.

WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE CDC REPORT?

>> WELL, FIRST OF ALL, LET ME JUST SAY, I THOUGHT ABOUT THIS APPEARANCE TONIGHT, BECAUSE YOU USUALLY START OUT ASKING ME, WHAT INNING IS IT, AND I'VE SAID TO YOU BEFORE, IF WE'RE INTO INNINGS, QUARTERS, PERIODS, ANYTHING ANYMORE.

SO IN TERMS OF WHAT WE SEE WITH THIS REPORT, IT'S REALLY A COMBINATION OF WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH COVID, WHICH IS WIDESPREAD RIGHT NOW.

FORTUNATELY, NOT NEARLY AS SEVERE OF CASES AS BEFORE.

WE'RE SEEING SOME FLU, BUT, ACTUALLY, THE UPPER MIDWEST SO FAR HAS BEEN PRETTY WELL SPARED, A LOT OF THE FLU HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN THE SOUTH.

THIS RSV VIRUS, WHICH CAN BE ALSO VERY NASTY, HAS ACTUALLY PEAKED AND STARTING TO COME DOWN.

WHAT'S CARRYING THE DAY IS COVID.

>> Cathy: I HERE THE LATEST VARIANT IS VERY GOOD AT INFECTING PEOPLE.

>> IT'S VERY VERY GOOD.

AND, UNFORTUNATELY, WE'RE ACTUALLY SEEING PEOPLE WHO HAVE CONSIDERED THEMSELVES NOT AT RISK ANYMORE BECAUSE THEY WENT FOR FOUR YEARS WITHOUT GETTING INFECTED, WHO ARE NOW GETTING INFECTED FOR THE FIRST TIME.

AND, SO, THIS HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE.

AND MANY OF THESE ARE PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN VACCINATED, WHO HAVE ACTUALLY HAD, YOU KNOW, ALL THEIR DOSES THEY WERE SUPPOSED TO GET, BUT STILL ARE DOWN FOR EIGHT OR TEN DAYS AT A TIME.

NOW, YOU SAY, WELL, YOU SAID THEY WERE VACCINATED.

THESE PEOPLE ARE STILL HAVING MILDER ILLNESS COMPARED TO IF THEY HADN'T BEEN VACCINATED, THE DATA SHOWS THAT'S THE SITUATION.

>> Eric: WHAT ARE HE BARRIERS TO GETTING MORE PEOPLE VACCINATED WITH THE LATEST ROUND?

>> YOU KNOW, WE IN PUBLIC HEALTH RIGHT NOW ARE IN A VERY BAD WAY.

WE DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY THERE'S SUCH RESISTANCE TO VACCINES.

RESEARCH, YOU KNOW, OR THE PAST 20 YEARS SAID, IT WAS ALL ABOUT SAFETY, PEOPLE WERE CONCERNED ABOUT THE SAFETY OF THE VACCINES.

BUT WE'RE SEEING REALLY OVER THE PAST FOUR YEARS HAS BEEN A WHOLE NEW RESISTANCE ABOUT, DON'T TELL ME WHAT TO DO.

AND IRTS ACTUALLY NOT ONLY SPILLING OVER TO HUMANS BUT TALK TO VETERINARIANS WHO WILL TELL YOU, THEY CAN'T GET DOGS AND CATS VACCINATED RIGHT NOW BECAUSE PEOPLE SAY, I DON'T WANT TO GET THEM VACCINATED, IF YOU TELL ME I HAVE TO, I'M NOT GOING TO.

THIS IS A REAL CHALLENGE.

RIGHT NOW IN THE UNITED STATES, ONLY ABOUT 18% OF THE OVERALL POPULATION HAS BEEN VACCINATED WITH THIS DOSE, WHICH CAN, AGAIN, REALLY REDUCE SERIOUS ILLNESS, AND IF YOU EVEN LOOK AT INDIVIDUALS IN NURSING HOMES RIGHT NOW, ONLY 37% OF NURSING HOME RESIDENTS HAVE BEEN VACCINATED.

SO WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO THAT WAY, JUST TO TRY TO KEEP PEOPLE OUT OF THE HOSPITAL AND KEEP THEM FROM HAVING SERIOUS ILLNESS.

>> Cathy: SO WHAT ARE THE NEW CHALLENGES WITH THIS VARIANT?

JN1.

ARE THERE ANY NEW CHALLENGES TO IT?

>> YOU KNOW, CATHY, I REMEMBER, I WENT BACK AND LOOKED AT THIS, WHEN I WAS ON THIS SHOW BACK IN THE END OF 2020, WE SAW A NEW VARIANT DEVELOPING CALLED ALPHA, AND IT WAS A GAME CHANGER, BECAUSE IT WAS SO MUCH MORE INFECTIOUS, AND I SAID ON THE SHOW THAT NIGHT, THAT I THOUGHT THE VARIANTS WERE WHAT WERE GOING TO DETERMINE THE LENGTH AND THE SEVERITY F THE PANDEMIC.

AND SURE ENOUGH, THAT'S WHAT'S HAPPENED.

WE'VE HAD NINE PEAKS OF CASES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OUTBREAK SINCE 2020.

AND EVERY ONE OF THEM WERE ALL RELATED TO THE EVOLUTION OF A NEW VARIANT.

WHERE NOW IT HAS NEW CHANGES THAT CAN AVOID THE MMUNE PROTECTION THAT WE'VE HAD FROM PREVIOUS INFECTIONS.

SO I ON'T KNOW HOW MANY MORE VARIANTS ARE COMING.

BUT THAT'S WHAT'S GOING TO DETERMINE WHERE IT'S AT.

>> Eric: YOU'VE STRESSED THAT THIS IS NOT SEASONAL.

AND, YET, I WONDER IF THE HOLIDAY-STYLE GATHERINGS DO GIVE IT A BOOST.

>> WELL, I'M SURE THAT THAT'S THE CASE.

BUT WHEN WE TALK ABOUT SEASONAL, REMEMBER I JUST MENTIONED THERE WERE NINE DIFFERENT PEAKS, THEY'RE EQUALLY DISTRIBUTED THROUGH THE FOUR QUARTERS, RIGHT NOW SOME OF THE WORST ACTIVITY IN THE WORLD FOR COVID IS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.

AUSTRALIA HAS THE FIFTH HIGHEST DEATH RATE RIGHT NOW.

IT'S SUMMERTIME THERE.

SO WE SEE THAT SAME IN SOUTH AMERICA, AFRICA.

SO, AGAIN, THIS VIRUS HASN'T ADAPTED INTO A SEASONAL PATTERN YET, IT'S JUST WHEN THE NEW VARIANTS EMERGE.

SO, YOU KNOW, I'LL TELL YOU RIGHT NOW, I DON'T KNOW A QUARTER, PERIOD, OR INNING WE'RE IN UNTIL WE KNOW HOW THE VARIANTS ARE OING TO CONTINUE TO EMERGE, HOW DOES OUR I AM -- IMMUNE RESPONSE RELATE TO THAT?

>> Cathy: DO WE STILL NEED TO WORRY ABOUT LONG COVID?

>> AS YOU KNOW, I HAD A PRETTY MARKED CASE OF IT MYSELF FOR FOUR MONTHS.

YEAH, I DO WORRY ABOUT THAT.

I THINK THIS IS A SITUATION, LONG TAILS OF COVID, COSTWISE, HEALTHCAREWISE, ILLNESSWISE IS REALLY VERY IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER.

>> Eric: AND EPIDEMIOLOGIST FROM JOHNS HOPKINS, KAITLIN RIVERS, SAYS, QUOTE, THERE'S NO SIGN OF ANOTHER SEVERE WAVE.

>> WELL, I THINK THE ISSUE ABOUT A SEVERE WAVE AS I POINTED OUT BEFORE, YOU MAY RECALL, I SAID, WE'RE NOT GOING TO GO BACK TO THOSE FIRST THREE YEARS.

WE'RE NOT GOING TO SEE THE BIG BIG INCREASES.

RIGHT NOW WE'RE TALKING ROUGHLY ABOUT 38,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS A WEEK IN THIS COUNTRY.

ALMOST WHERE WE WERE A YEAR AGO RIGHT NOW.

BUT THAT'S BELOW 60,000 WHERE WE WERE AT TWO YEARS AGO.

SO THE NUMBERS OF HOSPITALIZATIONS AND SERIOUS ILLNESSES ARE COMING DOWN.

BUT WE'RE STILL OSING OVER 200 PEOPLE A DAY IN THIS COUNTRY.

>> Cathy: MOSTLY OLDER PEOPLE.

>> AND MOST OF IT'S N OLDER PEOPLE, RIGHT.

>> Cathy: I WONDER, THEN, MIKE, WHAT SHOULD PEOPLE THINK ABOUT THIS?

I MEAN, IS IT STILL SAFE TO GO OUT AND EAT OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT, OR DO YOU GO BACK TO MAYBE SOME COVID, SOME PANDEMIC PRECAUTIONS, LIKE WEARING MASKS?

>> WELL, I THINK THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS, WE KNOW SOCIETY IS PRETTY WELL GIVEN UP ON WEARING MASKS.

OKAY.

AND THAT IS UNFORTUNATE IF YOU'RE SOMEONE WHO IS AT HIGH RISK FOR SERIOUS ILLNESS.

STILL YOU CAN PROTECT YOURSELF BY BEING OUT THERE.

BUT FAMILY GATHERINGS, SUCH ARE THE PRESSURES THERE.

MY MESSAGE IS TEST.

TEST YOURSELF BEFORE YOU GO SOMEWHERE.

IF YOU MIGHT EXPOSE OTHERS.

ASK THEM TO TEST.

SO IF YOU GO HOME TO SEE GRANDMA AND GRANDPA, YOU KNOW, YOU DON'T ANT TO BRING COVID TO THEM.

AND TESTING CAN BE HELPFUL WITH THAT.

THE SECOND THING IS JUST GETTING EVERYONE VACCINATED.

SO EVEN SOME FINANCE DOES GET COVID IT'S GOING TO BE A MUCH LESS SEVERE ILLNESS AND THAT I CAN'T OVEREMPHASIZE.

>> Eric: APPRECIATE THE EXPERTISE.

THANKS FOR COMING VER.

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